Better and greener decision making through risk management

Better and greener decision making through risk management

09 Dec 2021

International Risk Services

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This informal CPD article Better and greener decision making through risk management was provided by International Risk Services, an organisation dedicated to integrating risk management into decision making, planning, project management, performance management and core business processes.

Risk Awareness Week 2021

This year’s Risk Awareness Week 2021, brought together expert speakers from across the globe, giving presentations on a wide range of themes. Sessions gave practical tips on everything from understanding uncertainty to how perception and risk psychology influences decision making.

The theme for the week was better and greener decision making through risk management. Sessions were specifically focused on achieving better planning, performance management and governance through decision science and modern risk management tools.

One of the core aims of Risk Awareness Week is to bring risk management to non-risk professionals who would benefit from its concepts and ideas the most. We want to help empower non-risk employees to enhance corporate and personal decision making through better use of risk management tools and techniques.

Risk Management 2.0

We also want to help risk managers embrace more modern mathematical tools to progress to what we call Risk Management 2.0. This means moving away from blunt instruments such as heat maps and risk appetite statements, and instead getting to grips with more sophisticated analytics such as Monte Carlo simulations. We believe that only by doing this, can the risk management profession truly enable better board-level decision making and turn threats into opportunities.

The good news is that there is a select number of techniques and tools, which, once learnt, can be applied to any risk whether narrow or broad. The modelling principles and quantification of uncertainties, the move away from averages and avoiding human bias is the same no matter what the situation. That means these mathematical models can be used for any type of risk, whether that’s cyber, floods, fire, investment risk and so on.

The conference was split across five days, each with a different focus. Throughout the week, our amazing line-up of speakers shared practical case studies on integrating risk management into climate and environmental decision making, planning, project management and risk-adjusted performance management.

Here are the top highlights from each day:

Risk management and governance

The first day was dedicated to governance and the future of risk management.

Key learnings included:

  • How to establish relationships with boards
  • How to turn risk into risk capital and create shareholder value
  • How to link risk with strategy, finance and treasury departments

The top session, which was run by Alex Sidorenko, chief risk officer at Eurochem, examined four key future trends for risk management 2.0. He touched on why it’s important to have clear goals for quantitative risk analysis, the value of stochastic libraries, and why risk managers don’t need to “reinvent the wheel”.

Other key sessions of the day were:

  • Risk as a Scarce Resource - Boards and the Attraction of Risk - David R. Koenig. President and CEO, The DCRO Institute
  • The board's role in risk governance - Norman Marks, Author, thought leader, retired CAE and CRO
  • Practical steps to enrich risk analysis with scenario planning - Henk Krijnen, Founding partner, Claridec
  • Measuring Readiness and Building Capability in Business Continuity - David Lindstedt PhD, Founder, Adaptive BC Solutions 
Risk analysis to climate and environment

Climate and the environment

On day two, speakers shared practical step-by-step workshops showing how to apply quantitative risk analysis to climate and environmental decisions.

Key learnings included:

  • How to bring mathematical techniques to narrow risks such as fire and flood modelling
  • Why the flow of averages is one of the most fundamental issues in risk management
  • How to convince businesses to move away from deterministic average scenarios
  • Using scenarios as a simple a tool to move into more risk-based decision making
  • How to use Monte Carlo simulations and seamlessly integrate stochastic analysis into decision making.

The top session, which was run by Mariia Kozlova, a post-doctoral researcher at LUT University, looked at making sense of uncertainty, specifically in the context of climate-based decisions. The presentation was split into three key areas:

  1. analysis of investment decisions into renewable energy power plants,
  2. Life cycle emissions and how to optimise the policy to reduce them.
  3. A hands-on case study looking at Monte Carlo modelling around electric vehicles

Other key sessions throughout the day were:

  • Scenario planning for climate and other global threats - Hans Læssøe, Founder, AKTUS
  • Which risks should a business focus on? - David Vose, Vice President of Risk Management, Archer Integrated Risk Management
  • Using stochastic decision trees to quantify environmental risks - Alex Sidorenko, Chief Risk Officer, EuroChem
  • Identifying and understanding optionality with value of information - Brian Putt & Alex Sidorenko, Putt DQ Consulting & EuroChem 
Risk perception and psychology

Risk psychology

Day three focused on risk perception with practical workshops examining how to overcome biases, how to deal with heuristics and how to improve expert judgments.

Key learnings included:

  • Why the human brain is built in a way that doesn't comprehend risk and we ignore risk and biases in decision making
  • How to calibrate expert judgements and individual risk perceptions using statistical models
  • The importance of being mentally and physically prepared for unexpected events
  • How to communicate risk effectively with the business and the importance of first impressions

The top session of the day, which was by Christian Hunt, the founder of Human Risk, explored how our perception of risk impacts our view of it and why things that are salient to us, take on a greater significance than things that aren't.

He argued that by understanding how our brains perceive risk, we can design risk management programs that can compensate for the biases inherent in human thinking to deliver better outcomes.

Other key sessions throughout the day were:

  • The next phase of FrankenSME: The latest developments in combining expert judgements - Douglas Hubbard, Founder/President, Hubbard Decision Research
  • Successful Risk Taking - Sarah Davis, Founder, Sarah Davis
  • How expert are your experts? - Graeme Keith, Owner & CEO, Stochastic ApS
  • The impact that situations have on our behavior and what we can do about it - Kurt Nelson PhD, The Lantern Group 
Risk and Project Management

Project management

Day four focused on how to integrate risk tools and techniques into project management. Sessions explored how to apply quantitative risk analysis to make better schedule, budgeting and CapEx decisions for everything from small investments to large construction projects.

Key learnings included:

  • The practical application of managing uncertainties in cost, schedule and technical risk
  • Understanding parametric models and different approaches to modelling uncertainty
  • How to model environmental constraints on capital projects
  • Case studies on using stochastic thinking to improve project decisions 

The top session was One of the most popular sessions was: A Beginner's Path to Probabilistic Project Scheduling, by William W Davis, a senior project manager at NCCI Holdings, Inc.

Davis shared how he successfully used nothing more than Microsoft Excel and a pre-built, freely-licensed spreadsheet called Statistical PERT to create a 10-month schedule at the activity level for a major upgrade of his employer's enterprise resource planning (ERP) software.

Other key sessions throughout the day were:

  • Principles of Managing in the Presence of Uncertainties That Create Cost, Schedule, and Technical Risk - Glen B Alleman, Program Performance Management, Niwot Ridge LLC
  • Using Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis to Enhance Project Success - a NASA Case Study - Christian B. Smart, Chief Data Scientist, Galorath
  • Decision Making in Civil Engineering Projects. How to make it more efficient and effective - Yehuda Sapir, CEO and Owner, Keshet Solutions
  • Risk Intelligence - using AI to transform risk management – Gregory, M. Carroll, Author, AI Insights 

Integrating risk management into decision making

Day five examined how to use risk management techniques such as quantitative risk analysis in important business, investment and insurance decisions. Speakers gave practical workshops which provided step-by-step guides on how to apply these risk management tools to improve decision making.

Key learnings included:

  • Understanding Bayes theorem and Bayesian inference
  • Applying Monte Carlo to quantify legal and compliance risks
  • Writing a simulation for risks that are difficult to quantify
  • Why brokers are often clueless about risks
  • How take data from external databases and publicly available sources and use them in your models 

The top session of the day was quantify legal and compliance risks from zero to hero, a workshop by Prof. Hernan Huwyler, IT risk senior lead at IE Law School.

Huwyler explained how to change insurance and control provisions by using an estimator tool to calculate loss expectancy curves on contractual, regulatory, criminal and privacy risks. Attendees learnt how to use simple MS Excel formulas to model risks based on common distributions and how to collect and validate risk data on legal assessments.

Other key sessions throughout the day were:

  • Rethinking Cyber Risk Responses - Tony Martin-Vegue, Senior Security Risk Engineer, Netflix
  • How to kill James Bond using Bayesian Inference - Benoit Ladouceur, Director, Risk Management, Top Aces
  • How to save $10M on insurance without changing limits or deductibles - Alex Sidorenko, Chief Risk Officer, EuroChem 

You can watch all the sessions from across all five days of Risk Awareness Week on their website. There is also key resources available for download, including free sample models, book extracts, presentations and more.

We hope this article was helpful. For more information from International Risk Services, please visit their CPD Member Directory page. Alternatively please visit the CPD Industry Hubs for more CPD articles, courses and events relevant to your Continuing Professional Development requirements.

International Risk Services

International Risk Services

For more information from International Risk Services, please visit their CPD Member Directory page. Alternatively please visit the CPD Industry Hubs for more CPD articles, courses and events relevant to your Continuing Professional Development requirements.

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